The Frozen Fruits and Vegetables Industry: Beyond "Involution" to Sustainable Growth？

The term 'involution' is often used to describe the frozen fruits and vegetables industry, but behind the sector’s booming momentum lies not merely cut-throat competition, but a true reflection of its accelerated development. In terms of market performance, the output of most frozen fruit and vegetable products has increased steadily this year, with only a handful of categories seeing a slight decline. Interestingly, a common trend in the industry is 'silence amid growth, noise amid decline'—when processing volumes and sales rise, the market remains calm; yet even a minor natural disaster that causes slight output fluctuations can easily trigger sensationalized claims. However, the reality is that despite the 'involution' criticism, the shipment volumes of most enterprises have not fallen. Trading companies, in particular, have delivered outstanding results, with many doubling their trade volumes.

Over the past two years, the construction of new frozen fruit and vegetable processing plants has been remarkably rapid, with their scale and equipment far surpassing those built in previous years. These new facilities not only boast well-equipped workshop hardware but also feature exquisite and luxurious offices. Even if some offices remain vacant temporarily, they do little to dampen the enthusiasm for building plants across various regions. According to industry insiders, it is a conservative estimate that over 100 large-scale frozen fruit and vegetable processing plants will be completed between 2024 and 2025, with an extremely wide distribution: coastal cities, the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan region, the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai area, Xinjiang, and Gansu have already formed industrial clusters. While Hebei, Henan, Shaanxi, and Shanxi are progressing at a slightly slower pace, a large number of plants in these provinces will also be completed within the next two years. Behind this wave of expansion is the strong support from the state for the agricultural industry, which has injected robust impetus into the sector’s development.

Changes in regional industrial layout have become a key driver of the industry’s growth.

Leveraging its unique natural advantages, the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan region has emerged as a new core area for frozen fruit processing. Blueberries and raspberries, which take 2-3 years to mature in northern China, can be harvested in Yunnan in just a few months; strawberries, which have a mere one-month ripening period in the north, can be picked continuously for several months in Sichuan. Today, the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan region has achieved large-scale cultivation of pomegranates, mangoes, grapes, mulberries, and strawberries, while categories such as cherry tomatoes and avocados are also taking shape. The planting area and variety range are expected to continue expanding in the future. Such irreplaceable natural conditions have made the southward shift of frozen fruit processing an obvious trend, further accelerating the optimization of the industry’s structure.

At the same time, traditional processing areas are also undergoing upgrading. Shandong is the most concentrated region for vegetable processing plants, with its annual output hitting new highs repeatedly—once-rare '10,000-ton plants' are now commonplace. Linyi firmly holds the title of the country’s largest producer of frozen strawberries and yellow peaches, while areas like Laiyang in Yantai have reduced output of traditional products and shifted toward industrial upgrading that better caters to end consumers. Some enterprises have chosen to build plants close to production areas: Yunnan has seen a significant increase in the number of large and small frozen processing plants this year, with construction still ongoing. This layout adjustment is gradually addressing the issue of wasted transportation resources in the industry. For example, Yunnan blueberries are transported to the three northeastern provinces for premium sales before being distributed nationwide and exported; Sichuan strawberries are shipped north first and then south for distribution. Although these are phenomena of the industry’s transitional phase, they are also driving the continuous optimization of resource allocation.

The application scenarios of frozen fruits and vegetables have long penetrated daily life, and the potential of the domestic demand market is being released at an accelerated pace. Beyond off-season edamame, pumpkin in porridge shops, and side dishes in chain restaurants, the variety of frozen fruits and vegetables is far more extensive than imagined: leafy greens include spinach, lettuce, and cilantro; podded vegetables cover green peas, edamame, and snow peas; tubers and roots include potatoes, carrots, and Chinese yams; there are also various edible fungi, cauliflower, and specialty mixed side dishes—even ginger, green onions, and garlic have commercial frozen products. Frozen fruits are equally diverse, encompassing temperate fruits like apples and strawberries, subtropical fruits like citrus and pomegranates, tropical fruits like mangoes and durians, as well as freeze-dried products and imported varieties, covering most common and specialty fruits. Most of these products are still in the early stages of market development. With the milk tea industry driving demand for frozen fruits and the pre-cooked meal boom indirectly boosting consumption of frozen vegetables, the future growth space for domestic demand is extremely broad.

However, amid the industry’s rapid expansion, there are still unresolved issues. The market uses of fruits and vegetables of different varieties and grown in different environments have not yet been fully clarified, and the connection between processors’ supply and end customers’ demand is not precise enough. This leads to repeated processing and mismatched resources—high-quality raw materials are not used where they are most needed, while low-quality raw materials undermine market trust. In addition, the industry’s overly rapid development hides risks: for instance, the price of frozen mulberries in Sichuan soared to over 20,000 yuan per ton due to the milk tea boom, only to plummet to below 3,000 yuan per ton shortly after; the popularity of Phyllanthus emblica (Indian gooseberry) rose and fell quickly; this year, the output of black currants and raspberries in Europe decreased due to heavy snow, leading to price increases, but Yunnan has seen a significant expansion in raspberry cultivation, and output will surge in the next 1-2 years. If the global market returns to normal next year, prices may face sharp fluctuations, and it is often the bottom-level practitioners who end up suffering losses.

The frozen fruits and vegetables industry is still in its early stage of development. Compared with fresh fruits and vegetables, its market penetration rate remains low, leaving ample room for future growth. However, compared with European and American countries, Chinese consumers have different habits and national conditions, so the popularization path may differ. For the industry, the focus in the future should no longer be solely on increasing the number of plants and expanding output, but on improving quality, refining product uses, optimizing resources, reducing repeated processing and transportation waste, and establishing a precise supply-demand connection system. Only by balancing quality and scale during expansion, avoiding market risks and protecting the interests of practitioners during development, can the industry achieve sustainable growth—and this is the development direction that the frozen fruits and vegetables industry should adhere to behind its rapid expansion.